October 2025 Report by Shoreline Realty Group PV
The real estate market outlook in Banderas Bay, at the end of 2025, presents a complex and mature picture that defies simple labels of "buyers' market" or "sellers' market." Instead, it reveals a distinct dichotomy: on the one hand, abundant inventory; on the other, a selective race toward quality that keeps prices firm.
Executive Summary: Navigating a Nuanced Market
The report notes that the inventory level in the condominium segment is over 34 months old, which would typically suggest downward pressure on prices. However, the average sales price has grown 13.9% annually. This apparent contradiction is explained by a polarization of the market: excess supply is concentrated in standard or lower-quality units, while top-tier properties—with prime locations, modern finishes, and amenities—are being acquired at record prices and minimal discounts.
A Deeper Look at Market Dynamics
The current inventory buildup is the result of a strong development cycle following post-pandemic demand. New unit listings fell 78% year-over-year, indicating that developers and existing owners are delaying their market entry and preferring to absorb existing stock before adding more supply.
Meanwhile, buyer behavior has evolved toward a more selective, value-oriented approach. Properties that are selling are those that meet higher quality criteria, reflected in a 96.7% sales-to-list price ratio and an average sales price of US$552,000 for condos.
The Condominium Market: Where Quality Rules
Below are some of the key indicators for the October 2024–September 2025 period:
- Active listings: 3,206 units, +43% annually.
- New listings: 77 units, -78% annually.
- Average sales price: US$552,000, +13.9% annually.
- Sale/Listing ratio: 96.7%.
- Months of inventory (MOI): 34.1.
These numbers show that, although the market offers many options (which favors buyers), there is a premium product segment that is beyond the reach of the oversupply, and this is where competition and appreciation are concentrated.
What does this mean for buyers and investors?
- For buyers:there is abundant supply, allowing for negotiation; however, if they are looking for quality, they should be proactive and pay more for turnkey products in prime locations.
- For sellers:positioning their property in the premium segment (better location, finishes, amenities) is key to avoiding being trapped in the accumulation of standard inventory.
- For investors:the bifurcation of the market creates opportunities for well-positioned products; standard units face greater competition and longer sales times.
The real estate market in Banderas Bay is not in crisis, but rather in transition. The excess of standard supply coexists with a persistent demand for quality. The key is to identify or create products that meet the new standards of buyers/investors, and for sellers to properly differentiate their offerings to compete for this premium segment.
To read the full October 2025 report, click here.
