A Real Estate Market No Longer Moving in One Lone Range

Real estate appreciation in Mexico is no longer growing uniformly. The Mexican real estate market is going through a period of adjustment, but not homogeneously. This is confirmed by the BBVA Research report, "Real Estate Situation Mexico – Second Half 2025," which shows increasingly polarized behavior across regions.

Nationally, housing prices grew by around 9% annually between 2023 and 2025, a figure that reflects stability. However, this average masks very different realities: while some urban markets show signs of maturity, tourist destinations continue to lead price appreciation..

Tourist states concentrate the greatest appreciation

BBVA clearly identifies the states that have led the growth in housing value over the last two years. Among them are:

• Baja California Sur:, with growth of nearly 13.5%
• Quintana Roowith approximately 13.4%
• Nayarit, with around 11.8%

These figures place tourist destinations well above the national average and reinforce a trend that has solidified after the pandemic: real estate investment has shifted toward regions that combine quality of life, land scarcity, and international demand..

In contrast, traditionally strong markets such as Mexico City and the State of Mexico are registering more moderate increases, ranging between 5% and 7%,typical of more mature markets with less room for expansion.

Why Tourist Destinations Resilient Economic Cycles Better

One of the key factors explaining this difference is the structure of demand.BBVA emphasizes that tourist destinations operate under different dynamics than the traditional urban market.

In large cities, home purchases depend more heavily on formal employment, salary income, and access to mortgage credit. In contrast, in destinations like Puerto Vallarta, Riviera Nayarit, or Los Cabos,demand is driven by different profiles:

• Foreign buyers acquiring second homes
• Wealth investors seeking to preserve value
• Cash purchases or purchases with low leverage
• Decisions based on lifestyle, not immediate housing needs

This composition makes tourist markets less sensitive to the mortgage slowdown that BBVA is detecting nationally, and explains why they continue to show resilience even in more restrictive economic environments.

Higher-value homes are concentrated in tourist destinations

Another key finding of the report is the concentration of middle-income and residential housing in tourist states. In states like Baja California Sur and Quintana Roo, this segment represents more than 30% of total demand..

This has clear implications for the market:

• The average price is higher
• Buyers are more sophisticated and comparative
• Projects must offer more than just location: design, amenities, and concept

In these markets, appreciation comes not only from general price growth but also from the quality of the real estate being developed.

Is there a risk of a bubble in tourist destinations?

BBVA is cautious but clear: there are no signs of a widespread real estate bubble in Mexico. The report indicates that unsold completed housing remains at controlled levels and that price increases are largely due to real supply and demand fundamentals.

In the case of tourist destinations, the pressure on prices is mainly linked to:

• Limited supply of well-located land
• Sustained growth in international demand
• Long-term appeal as residential and retirement destinations

This does not mean that every project is guaranteed. BBVA suggests that the market is entering a more selective phase: well-planned developments are selling; generic ones are lagging behind..

What does this mean for Vallarta and Baja?

For those who live or invest in Puerto Vallarta, Riviera Nayarit, or Baja California Sur, the report's message is clear. Property value appreciation continues to favor established tourist destinations, but with clear conditions:

• Location is increasingly crucial.
• The project concept carries more weight than ever.
• Differentiation is key in a more competitive market.

In a country where major urban centers are beginning to show signs of stabilization, tourist destinations are positioning themselves as the new drivers of real estate growth in Mexico..

The Mexican real estate market is not in decline; it is undergoing a transformation.
And according to BBVA, this transformation clearly benefits tourist destinations, which combine strong demand, limited supply, and international appeal.

For informed investors and buyers, understanding this new geography of growth is not just a competitive advantage: it is a necessary condition for making well-informed asset decisions.