The first quarter of 2025 has brought a wave of movement to the Puerto Vallarta real estate market—some of it expected, some less so. For Canadians and Americans considering a purchase in our tropical haven, it's essential to understand how the numbers reflect a resilient yet nuanced market dynamic.

Despite a notable 48% increase in new listings compared to the same period in 2024, prices have not dropped. This might surprise some buyers who are accustomed to primary housing markets, where increased inventory often pushes pricing downward.

But Puerto Vallarta is different. As a secondary housing market, most properties here are vacation homes—and most are owned outright, without mortgages. This means sellers are under far less pressure to offload their homes quickly. As a result, even with more choices on the market, prices have remained relatively firm. The average time on market sits at over 260 days, and that's normal for our region.

That said, the real indicator to watch—and what tells a more honest story than the typical “sold price vs list price” metric—is the sold price as a percentage of the original list price. While sold vs list price is often quoted, it's a misleading measure because many listings undergo one or more price reductions before selling. The more accurate—and telling—metric is sold price vs original list price.

In Q1 2024, homes were selling at just 3.1% below their original list price. Fast forward to Q1 2025, and that number has widened to 10.7% below original list price. While this doesn’t mean prices have collapsed, it does indicate some price erosion—or at the very least, that buyers are negotiating more aggressively and sellers are starting to respond.

Still, it’s far from doom and gloom. Sales volumes are up substantially:

• +27% in total units sold
• +50% increase in dollar volume sold
• +18% rise in average sales price

In other words, people are still buying, and they’re buying at higher prices overall, even if those prices are more flexible than they were a year ago.

From a global perspective, geopolitical instability and shifting sentiment among Canadians are also starting to show their influence. On a recent trip to Canada, I spoke with multiple Canadians and real estate professionals. There’s a growing reluctance among Canadians to travel to or invest in the U.S., driven by increasing geopolitical tensions and personal safety concerns. Some are choosing to stay in Canada, but the majority still seek sunshine and warmth—and Mexico remains a top alternative.

Puerto Vallarta is particularly well-positioned to benefit. Direct flights from Canadian cities are numerous and increasing, residency is more attainable than in many other warm-weather destinations, and rental income potential is strong. For comparison, places like Portugal—popular with European expats—are harder to reach, offer less winter rental demand, and come with stricter residency rules.

So, what happens next?

The next 60 days will be critical for the real estate market. With talk of a global economic slowdown and signs of tightening discretionary spending, buyer confidence could shift quickly. But for now, demand remains solid, and Puerto Vallarta continues to attract attention from serious international buyers.

Click here to read the full real estate market report and explore opportunities in one of Mexico’s most dynamic coastal markets.

Nik Valcic:A Canadian expat and professional real estate advisor based in Puerto Vallarta he is co-founder of Shoreline Realty Group..

^[1] All the statistics from this data were obtained by downloading the data directly from the AMPI, Puerto Vallarta FlexMLS database.